#5 - HTML5 and apps
Apps will become OS agnostic, decoupling the OS from the ecosystem
Apple and Google’s dominance of the apps market will be threatened by the decoupling of apps from the OS. The change will democratize the apps space. It will erode the current duopoly, reduce barriers to entry and enable far more players to generate revenue from this unstoppable phenomenon.
Today’s laggards will be major drivers of this change. BlackBerry OS and Windows Phone do not have the market share or the application ecosystem to compete with iOS and Android. To combat this, they will instead ‘join’ the existing ecosystems and be instrumental in the drive towards “the return” of the web app.
BlackBerry devices will move to be able to run Android apps – we’re already seeing this on the PlayBook and more devices will follow. Software that enables porting of Android applications over to Windows will build on the early work of the likes of BlueStacks and will rapidly take off. The arrival of HTML5, running in all OSs through the browser will add significant weight to the move.
This decoupling will force OSs to compete on their own future-looking merits, not on the strength of their installed base. In this environment, Apple in particular will find it even harder to justify their 30% margin in the App Store.