<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" version="2.0"><channel><title>Northstreaming - Northstream predictions</title><atom:link href="http://northstream.se" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" /><link>http://northstream.se</link><description></description><language>en-us</language><copyright>Copyright (C) 2009 mywebsite.com</copyright><item><title>#1 - &quot;The long and winding road&quot;</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/1-the-long-and-winding-road/</link><pubDate>Sun 04 Dec 2011</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[It is that time of the year again! Northstream&#039;s unique insight gained from advising some of the world&#039;s leading mobile operators, infrastructure vendors and device manufacturers on market strategy and sourcing has been the inspiration to yet a new set of predictions. Northstream believes 2012 will be a year of continued network investment, and one where the industry will begin to recover. In 2011, mobile infrastructure vendors hit rock bottom after seven years of declining infrastructure pricing. In 2012, we expect infrastructure vendors to bounce back as the market matures, sub-scale vendors become too financially constrained to continue the price war, and operators start to charge properly for data while also taking a more holistic view onsourcing of systems and services. LTE will help further, but we&#039;ll only see a major breakthrough when support for a quality voice service is there. On the device side, we&#039;re going to see SIMs shrink, enabling new types of connected devices and paving the way for soft SIMs with enhanced over-the-air provisioning of services and capabilities. Similarly, we will see the beginnings of a big change in the apps space as the ecosystem moves towards the cloud and the tight link between applications and OS weakens. We also see one overall trend outside of these five: that operators will invest seriously in customer experience, and those that do will establish competitive advantage and significantly reduce churn. For more details on the predictions for the year ahead, click the icons below.]]></description></item><item><title>#2 - &quot;Come together&quot;</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/2-come-together/</link><pubDate>Sun 04 Dec 2011</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[Price pressure on mobile network infrastructure will decrease for the first time in seven years

For the first time in seven years - since the entrance of the large Chinese equipment vendors - we are seeing the beginnings of an end to excessive price pressures. A number of factors have led to this development, and finally vendors will begin to see pricing that is in line with the real cost of delivering mobile broadband.

The infrastructure market is maturing and normalizing, and the result is that there is less aggressive pricing to win market share.  Ericsson and Huawei have created a clear leadership and will not contribute to price wars.  At the same time NSN, Alcatel-Lucent and even ZTE are under financial pressure and cannot continue to try to buy market share. 

For operators, the need for constant and ongoing network modernization increases the demand for more capable hardware, greater capacity and greater network optimization. As the complexity of planning and implementing a multi-service network increases, operators are taking a more holistic approach to their sourcing activities, putting less focus on price and more on finding the right partner.  Without the right equipment partner, operators will not be able to manage the spiralling growth in mobile data consumption. 
]]></description></item><item><title>#3 - &quot;Here comes the sun&quot;</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/3-here-comes-the-sun/</link><pubDate>Sun 04 Dec 2011</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[Innovative mobile data price plans will reverse the trend of revenue decline

In recent years, topline revenue decline has been the trend, largely due to competition for market share in saturated markets.  Contributing to this, new VoIP and messaging services from so-called &#039;OTT&#039; service providers are eating into operator revenues. These pressures, combined with the increased cost and complexity of building and running a mobile network, will expedite the trend of operator consolidation. That, in turn, will reduce price pressures. 

To take advantage of this, innovative marketing departments will lead the revolution, delivering new and compelling price plans for mobile data connectivity. Well packaged data plans will compensate for dwindling voice and messaging revenues, and will begin to correct the under-charging that has been inherent to mobile data in recent years. 

Ultimately, operators will have to focus more on being a &#039;connectivity provider&#039; and leverage the inherent positive price elasticity of data to increase overall revenues. Operators must capitalise on users&#039; willingness to consume and to pay for mobile broadband that is constantly improving due to strong innovation of both technology and services.  For some operators, we may even see data revenues exceed voice revenues by the end of 2012.
]]></description></item><item><title>#4 - &quot;Lucy in the sky with diamonds&quot;</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/4-lucy-in-the-sky-with-diamonds/</link><pubDate>Sun 04 Dec 2011</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[SIMs will keep shrinking through 2012, and will eventually disappear into the cloud

We are gradually moving away from traditional SIM-based cellular connectivity, towards a soft SIM future. Throughout 2012, we will see continued developments in SIM technology to further reduce size - going from recent micro SIMs to nano SIMs - and to increase functionality and flexibility; leading towards a true soft SIM future. 

Apple, Google and other third parties will use their power to drive the change to smaller, more flexible SIM solutions in consumer devices, and then ultimately to soft SIMS based entirely on software and hosted in the cloud. Increased adoption of NFC and mobile payments, as well as the exploding M2M market, will require increased and more flexible over-the-air (OTA) provisioning of subscriptions - another driver. Operators will resist as the SIM has always been a critical operator-owned, operator-controlled component, but the change will come.   

Perhaps the final straw for the current SIM in handsets and tablets will be the mobile industry&#039;s fear of the growth of WiFi. In 2012, we will see an even greater proliferation of portable consumer electronic devices that take advantage of the effortless provisioning and true out-of-the-box connectivity of WiFi.  The user experience and the cost will both be superior to traditional SIM-based cellular connectivity; soft SIMs will be the only way to redress the balance.
]]></description></item><item><title>#5 - &quot;Maxwell&#039;s silver hammer&quot;</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/5-maxwells-silver-hammer/</link><pubDate>Sun 04 Dec 2011</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[Apps will become OS agnostic, decoupling the OS from the ecosystem

Apple and Google&#039;s dominance of the apps market will be threatened by the decoupling of apps from the OS. The change will democratize the apps space. It will erode the current duopoly, reduce barriers to entry and enable far more players to generate revenue from this unstoppable phenomenon.

Today&#039;s laggards will be major drivers of this change. BlackBerry OS and Windows Phone do not have the market share or the application ecosystem to compete with iOS and Android. To combat this, they will instead &#039;join&#039; the existing ecosystems and be instrumental in the drive towards &quot;the return&quot; of the web app.

BlackBerry devices will move to be able to run Android apps - we&#039;re already seeing this on the PlayBook and more devices will follow. Software that enables porting of Android applications over to Windows will build on the early work of the likes of BlueStacks and will rapidly take off. The arrival of HTML5, running in all OSs through the browser will add significant weight to the move.  

This decoupling will force OSs to compete on their own future-looking merits, not on the strength of their installed base.  In this environment, Apple in particular will find it even harder to justify their 30% margin in the App Store.  
]]></description></item><item><title>Bonus prediction -  &quot;All You Need is Love&quot;</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/bonus-prediction-all-you-need-is-love/</link><pubDate>Sun 04 Dec 2011</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[Northstream believes that operators will need to invest in customer experience in 2012, and those who do will find competitive advantage and reduce churn

A recent survey in Sweden indicates there&#039;s a major gap between the mobile users&#039; expectation levels on general service and their experience of the service delivered. At the same time, most media surveys and operator announcements focus on network quality instead. But Network quality in advanced markets is nothing but a hygiene factor - customers expect nothing less than good enough network quality (i.e. no dropped calls, adequate voice quality and data transfer rates). People will expect more than network quality alone, i.e. friendly and quick customer service; premium, personalized offers and not least super-efficient self-service options.
 
All in all, many are waiting to see an &quot;Apple&quot; of the operator business: someone that makes their experience not only something you just need but something you feel proud of or impressed by. We believe that operators that make the move and put emphasis in this area will make a big leap towards gaining customer love and reduced churn, which in mature markets is the most valuable thing.
]]></description></item><item><title>#1 - LTE uptake</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/1-lte-uptake/</link><pubDate>Fri 26 Nov 2010</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[As tradition calls for, Northstream has reviewed and analysed the trends we observe and pin-pointed a few key dimensions of the telecom market to &quot;predict&quot; and which we believe will have an impact on the everyday-life. In short; LTE is now on everyone&#039;s agenda, though we still see this as cautious try-outs rather than full-scale launches, even for 2011. Further, the since long forgotten mobile video call service is going to re-emerge, and this time for real. Convergence is another over-used term from the past that finally will see the real light. Also, M2M/CD growth has taken off a little bit in the background, but this will now get more attention. And lastly, another area we believe will get high attention in 2011 is the cagey topic of broadband traffic control that engage operators, vendors, regulators and ultimately the users, and here we see causes for balanced actions in 2011. 

For more details on these and other aspects just follow the icons below.]]></description></item><item><title>#2 - Video call</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/2-video-call/</link><pubDate>Fri 26 Nov 2010</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[In 2011, mobile video calling will finally take off - but not through the 3GPP video call standard

Although mobile video services were launched approximately ten years ago, a hopeless user interface on handsets at the time, coupled with high prices and inadequate network bandwidth meant they were set up to fail.  Today, that has changed and the latest devices, including most notably the iPhone 4, now boasts impressive face-facing cameras, a large high-res display and interactive applications that can switch between a standard voice call and a WiFi-enabled video call by the touch of a screen. Note that Apple reversed a recent trend of not equipping 3G phones with front cameras.  Can these improvements finally prove the use case for mobile video calling?
Northstream thinks so.  Despite just 1% of existing 3G calls being video enabled, Skype claims that its share of video calls stands at 40% of total customer interactions.  This proves that an attractive market for video calling potentially exists.  Furthermore, the number of video call enabled Apple devices alone is set to exceed 100 million over the next twelve months with equivalent applications from the likes of Tango and fring also expected to take off.  Cisco is likely to launch a consumer version of its video conferencing system. On the mobile side, as the call is made either through WiFi or your unlimited data rate plan -there is no cost threshold hampering usage.
These new mobile video calling solutions are attractive, perform well with crisp clear pictures and sound great too - it is now actually possible to switch between voice and video smoothly without hanging up. Next generation iPads and other tablets will further enhance and stimulate the mobile video calling experience by replicating the larger screen desktop/laptop currently on offer from the likes of Skype. Northstream predicts that Apple and its peers are about to achieve in one year what 3G operators have failed to do in 10. 2011 is the year that mobile video calling finally takes off - and it will have nothing to do with 3GPP video standards.]]></description></item><item><title>#3 - Convergence</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/3-convergence/</link><pubDate>Fri 26 Nov 2010</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[In 2011, iOS and Android platforms become the focal point of service convergence

For years, talk across the global mobile industry has been dominated by the acronyms FMS and FMC. Mobile operators frantically tried to drive fixed mobile substitution to grow their revenue streams.  Fixed line providers became obsessed with fixed mobile convergence services that combined the convenience and practicality of mobility with the reliability and cost efficiencies of fixed line access.
Both IMS and RCS (rich communications suite) were introduced to further bridge both the fixed/mobile and telco/internet divides.  The intention was to converge networks and services on to one joint, standardised platform that would liberate service development while safeguarding security and QoS.  While these intentions were honourable, it ultimately left operators and vendors in a catch 22 situation.  Device manufacturers became preoccupied with smartphone development, the operator community turned its attention to monetising and deploying mobile broadband and meanwhile the world&#039;s largest internet players started to expand their services and target mobile users.
The reality is that with the arrival of IP and the presence of WiFi, the latest devices have become the source of convergence for fixed and mobile services.  Apple and Google have changed the paradigm of mobile Value-Added Services (VAS) and content sales. The iOS and Android platforms offer an efficient storefront, payment mechanism and distribution channel for content developers and providers. The market access they deliver is unrivalled by any mobile operator. iPhones and Android smartphones represent the latest incarnation of the famous Swiss army knife, with touch screens overcoming the physical awkwardness of early smartphones while maintaining their primary function as communications devices.
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook, recently claimed that the &quot;iPad isn&#039;t mobile, it&#039;s a computer&quot;. Northstream begs to differ, the iPad is both. These latest tablets offer an almost entirely software-based blank canvass that can support most use cases imaginable. In contrast, an iPhone is limited by its size and physical feature set - it is by definition just a phone.  A laptop is just a portable computer that can drive productivity and efficiency gains.  A tablet is so much more - it&#039;s a mobile computer that can elegantly deliver communication while enabling media production and consumption.
The iOS and Android platforms have thus not only changed the name of the game for mobile VAS and content, they have also firmly separated the use case from its dependence on access. The disconnection from access offers developers total freedom in the choice between direct and indirect revenues. As a result, multiple services can now converge on one platform, not in a mobile operator&#039;s core or service network, but in the hands of the end user. Thus, convergence is larger than &quot;fixed-mobile&quot; and involves the (digital) convergence of multiple industries, businesses and use cases.
The tablet phenomenon will further boost the &quot;over-the-top&quot; service revenues channelled through iOS and Android platforms. The iPad is the first mobile device with a cellular connection sold on a global scale, free from operator lock-in or subsidies. Some tablet manufacturers will decide to go to market through operator subsidies but Apple will lead the charge in disconnecting these devices from operator control.
The application market continues to move away from mobile operators.  Although Apple is generating modest revenues from its App Store, the total number of mobile broadband enabled devices has increased to more than 50% of the subscriber base in developed markets.  Over the top app-based VAS revenues are in pole position to overtake existing &quot;on-deck&quot; operator App revenues.  Operators would do well to abandon plans to establish their own App Stores and concentrate on enabling more converged devices like tablets.]]></description></item><item><title>#4 - Connected Devices</title><link>http://northstream.se/prediction/4-connected-devices/</link><pubDate>Fri 26 Nov 2010</pubDate><category><![CDATA[Northstream predictions]]></category><description><![CDATA[Strong growth in mobile connections in 2011 will demonstrate that 10 billion global connections will be reached by 2015

Northstream believes that increased Mobile Broadband availability will drive the global mobile market beyond 10 billion connections by 2015. In 2009, Northstream predicted that the M2M/connected device market will start demonstrating strong growth in 2010, and this is what is happening. AT&amp;amp;T has seen total growth in connected device take up of 137% from Q3 &#039;09 to Q3 &#039;10 - strong evidence that the M2M market is set to explode. Last year Amazon&#039;s Kindle was setting the pace, and new products in the tablet space, such as iPad, are also now driving the market.  Market analysts such as iSuppli have re-checked their tablet sales estimates - they originally stated that single function eReaders will enjoy 40% CAGR (&#039;09-&#039;14), but accept that devices like the iPad and its likes could experience ten times that growth. Gartner has also increased its forecast of 10.5 million tablet sales up to 19.5 million for this year in accordance with extraordinary demand.
In order to grow from the 5.2 billion mobile connections we have today to 10 billion by 2015, the global mobile industry would need to achieve a CAGR of 14%.  This may initially appear aggressive, but we believe the following factors will drive this growth:

	 Sustained growth of voice subscriptions in emerging markets
	Growth in data-only subscriptions and the potential these could deliver in countries such as China and India
	Ongoing mobile broadband take up developed markets
	Growth of M2M deployments beyond consumer devices. More widespread mobile broadband take up will drive M2M applications across new vertical markets such as automotive, utilities and consumer electronics. Northstream believes that many of the current subscription estimates and forecasts for M2M technology are far too conservative.
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